I am as confused as everybody else; it is tough to parcel what the fuck is happening. This type of speculation does not add any value. Stay on your plan! If you have trouble sleeping, reduce risks and harvest some cash. Yes, this decade will be highly challenging.
We had covid.
We have war in Europe.
Fastest interest rate hikes ever from zero to 5%
The only bullish case is that when the recession hits, central banks will print, and we all will be saved. How fucking stupid is that?
Weakest die first
Bitcoin is not crypto.
Crypto
99% of crypto is shit; it is gambling and vaporware. We might have some use cases, maybe 1-5 projects in the long run? There are currently over 11k “coins” listed.
The crypto industry did not have any effect on the real economy. It was gambling, not investing; if you can argue that crypto affects the real world meaningfully, I’m all ears. FTX was a criminal scam.
VC / Startups
Can’t cash-burning furnaces run forever?
It is not so bad.
The weakest will die, also in the real world. Be it a commercial real estate fund, a shitty restaurant, a lousy product, or whatever shit business. It is normal to die and rise again and do something productive.
Die, learn new, be more productive, rinse, and repeat. How else we get better? This should be everyday life, but we have forgotten this.
Banks are strong and heavily regulated, be careful what you wish for.
Systemic risk? No? Credit event or liquidity problem? Yes.
We must embrace the cycle of learning, repeating, and improving. This is exciting. Let’s kill the 🤡.
Have a lovely weekend!